Stoke City 1–3 Millwall: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Millwall

C. Taylor 60' (OG)

J. Coburn 69'

F. Azeez 55'

C. Neghli 20'

4/21/2026

Championship · Round 44Bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Stoke City36%

×Draw26%

Millwall38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.36

Stoke City

1.32

Millwall

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

1.26

creates per match

1.43

1.29

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Stoke City

1.26

Millwall

1.43

allows per match

Stoke City

1.29

Millwall

1.38

+1.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Stoke City+1.17scores more

Millwall-0.21scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

62%

Stoke City or Millwall

74%

Draw or Millwall

64%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

16%

Millwall wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

73%

Stoke City 2+ goals

38%

Stoke City 3+ goals

15%

Millwall 1+ goals

74%

Millwall 2+ goals

39%

Millwall 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

49%

Millwall (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.38 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.26 + Millwall defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Millwall attack 1.43 + Stoke City defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stoke City scores more

36%

level

26%

Millwall scores more

38%

Millwall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

F. Azeez

Millwall · M

8.2

Match Events

5'

15'

20'

55'

59'

59'

S. Gallagher← M. Manhoef

60'

C. TaylorOwn goal

69'

J. Coburn↳ C. Neghli

74'

B. Pearson← S. N'Zonzi

74'

M. Smit← R. Bozenik

80'

D. McNamara← Z. Sturge

80'

M. Ivanovic← J. Coburn

80'

T. Watson← T. Ballo

81'

Danny McNamara

85'

L. Cundle← F. Azeez

85'

M. Langstaff← C. De Norre

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeMillwall

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots14

0.98Expected Goals (xG)1.48

11Corners1

8Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots14

4On Target6

5Off Target5

3Blocked3

6Inside Box11

6Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

327Total Passes382

234Accurate Passes294

72%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

-0.50Goals Prevented-0.50

Discipline

8Fouls11

0Yellow Cards3

3Offsides4