Stoke City 1–1 Millwall: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Millwall

B. Gibson 60'

J. Coburn 42'

11/9/2024

Championship · Round 15bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Stoke City38%

×Draw26%

Millwall36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.30

Stoke City

1.35

Millwall

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

1.35

creates per match

1.48

1.13

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Stoke City

1.35

Millwall

1.48

allows per match

Stoke City

1.13

Millwall

1.34

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

Stoke City+0.42scores more

Millwall-0.22scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

64%

Stoke City or Millwall

74%

Draw or Millwall

62%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

17%

Millwall wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

74%

Stoke City 2+ goals

39%

Stoke City 3+ goals

15%

Millwall 1+ goals

73%

Millwall 2+ goals

37%

Millwall 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

52%

Millwall (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.13 · 13 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.34 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.35 + Millwall defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Millwall attack 1.48 + Stoke City defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stoke City scores more

38%

level

26%

Millwall scores more

36%

Stoke City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

B. Gibson

Stoke City · D

7.9

Match Events

42'

J. Coburn

45+3'

Ben Gibson

46'

G. Honeyman← T. Bradshaw

50'

53'

54'

54'

54'

B. Wilmot← J. Tchamadeu

60'

B. Gibson↳ Bae Jun-Ho

67'

S. Sidibe← A. Moran

73'

M. Ivanović← J. Coburn

73'

G. Saville← R. Esse

84'

Ryan Wintle

90'

J. Thompson← E. Bocat

90+4'

S. Hutchinson← O. Azeez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeMillwall

Overview

72%Possession28%

8Total Shots8

0.74Expected Goals (xG)1.93

9Corners2

13Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots8

3On Target1

4Off Target7

1Blocked0

6Inside Box5

2Outside Box3

Passing

72%Possession28%

630Total Passes240

551Accurate Passes160

87%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

-0.05Goals Prevented-0.05

Discipline

13Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1