Stoke City 0–1 Millwall: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Millwall

Z. Flemming 9'

2/25/2023

Championship · Round 34bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 57+ matches

Stoke City38%

×Draw27%

Millwall35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.18

Stoke City

1.25

Millwall

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 62 away

1.19

creates per match

1.12

1.23

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Stoke City

1.19

Millwall

1.12

allows per match

Stoke City

1.23

Millwall

1.32

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.13scores more

Millwall-0.07on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

65%

Stoke City or Millwall

73%

Draw or Millwall

62%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

17%

Millwall wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

71%

Stoke City 2+ goals

36%

Stoke City 3+ goals

13%

Millwall 1+ goals

69%

Millwall 2+ goals

33%

Millwall 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

52%

Millwall (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 57 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.19 + Millwall defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Millwall attack 1.12 + Stoke City defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stoke City scores more

38%

level

27%

Millwall scores more

35%

Stoke City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

C. Cresswell

Millwall · D

7.9

Match Events

9'

Z. Flemming↳ A. Voglsammer

69'

J. Tymon← M. Fox

69'

S. Clucas← D. Gayle

76'

L. Baker← W. Smallbone

76'

R. Leonard← J. Shackleton

76'

S. Hutchinson← A. Voglsammer

83'

Danny McNamara

85'

J. Thompson← B. Pearson

88'

G. Evans← G. Saville

90+1'

S. Malone← T. Bradshaw

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeMillwall

Overview

72%Possession28%

15Total Shots7

9Corners4

10Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots7

3On Target1

5Off Target2

7Blocked4

4Inside Box4

11Outside Box3

Passing

72%Possession28%

555Total Passes230

443Accurate Passes111

80%Pass Accuracy48%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1