Stoke City 1–1 Manchester United: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Manchester United

Mata 19' (OG)

W. Rooney 90+4'

1/21/2017

Premier League · Round 22bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Stoke City36%

×Draw26%

Manchester United38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.35

Stoke City

1.31

Manchester United

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 199 away

1.31

creates per match

1.40

1.31

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Stoke City

1.31

Manchester United

1.40

allows per match

Stoke City

1.31

Manchester United

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par

Manchester United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

62%

Stoke City or Manchester United

74%

Draw or Manchester United

64%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

16%

Manchester United wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

73%

Stoke City 2+ goals

38%

Stoke City 3+ goals

14%

Manchester United 1+ goals

74%

Manchester United 2+ goals

39%

Manchester United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

49%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 72 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 199 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.31 + Manchester United defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Manchester United attack 1.40 + Stoke City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stoke City scores more

36%

level

26%

Manchester United scores more

38%

Manchester United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Ander Herrera

Manchester United · M

7.9

Match Events

7'

Marko Arnautović

19'

MataOwn goal

56'

M. Rashford← M. Fellaini

59'

Lee Grant

62'

Erik Pieters

63'

I. Afellay← C. Adam

67'

W. Rooney← Mata

73'

J. Ngoy← X. Shaqiri

73'

J. Lingard← H. Mkhitaryan

88'

G. Imbula← M. Arnautović

90'

Joe Allen

90+4'

W. Rooney

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeManchester

Overview

34%Possession66%

6Total Shots25

1Corners7

13Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots25

1On Target8

3Off Target8

2Blocked9

4Inside Box14

3Outside Box11

Passing

34%Possession66%

331Total Passes591

235Accurate Passes499

71%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls12

4Yellow Cards0

0Offsides6