Manchester United 3–0 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Manchester United

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Stoke City

R. Lukaku 72'

A. Martial 38'

A. Valencia 9'

1/15/2018

Premier League · Round 23Old Trafford

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Manchester United56%

×Draw24%

Stoke City20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester UnitedExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.93

Manchester United

1.71

Stoke City

0.93

Manchester United creates 84% more chances

Season form · 201 home / 74 away

1.81

creates per match

0.91

0.95

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Manchester United

1.81

Stoke City

0.91

allows per match

Manchester United

0.95

Stoke City

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchester United+0.00on par

Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Manchester United or draw

80%

Manchester United or Stoke City

76%

Draw or Stoke City

44%

Winning margin

Manchester United wins by 2+

31%

Stoke City wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Manchester United 1+ goals

82%

Manchester United 2+ goals

51%

Manchester United 3+ goals

24%

Stoke City 1+ goals

61%

Stoke City 2+ goals

24%

Stoke City 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Manchester United (draw refunded)

73%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.95 · 201 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United attack 1.81 + Stoke City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.71

Stoke City attack 0.91 + Manchester United defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Manchester United scores more

56%

level

24%

Stoke City scores more

20%

Manchester United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

P. Pogba

Manchester United · M

8.4

Match Events

9'

A. Valencia↳ P. Pogba

38'

A. Martial↳ P. Pogba

46'

K. Wimmer← J. Tymon

61'

Ramadan Sobhi← E. Choupo-Moting

63'

67'

68'

70'

72'

R. Lukaku↳ A. Martial

80'

M. Rashford← A. Martial

80'

M. Fellaini← J. Lingard

83'

S. McTominay← Mata

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterStoke

Overview

60%Possession40%

20Total Shots11

6Corners1

14Fouls10

Shots

20Total Shots11

9On Target5

6Off Target5

5Blocked1

12Inside Box9

8Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

604Total Passes395

542Accurate Passes326

90%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0