Stoke City 1–4 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Manchester City

Bojan 49' (pen)

Nolito 90+5', 86'

S. Agüero 36', 27' (pen)

8/20/2016

Premier League · Round 2bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Stoke City26%

×Draw24%

Manchester City49%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.65

Stoke City

1.13

Manchester City

1.65

Manchester City creates 46% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 200 away

1.31

creates per match

1.99

1.31

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Stoke City

1.31

Manchester City

1.99

allows per match

Stoke City

1.31

Manchester City

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par

Manchester City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

51%

Stoke City or Manchester City

76%

Draw or Manchester City

74%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

10%

Manchester City wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

68%

Stoke City 2+ goals

31%

Stoke City 3+ goals

11%

Manchester City 1+ goals

81%

Manchester City 2+ goals

49%

Manchester City 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

35%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 72 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.99, concedes 0.95 · 200 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.31 + Manchester City defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.13

Manchester City attack 1.99 + Stoke City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stoke City scores more

26%

level

24%

Manchester City scores more

49%

Manchester City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Nolito

Manchester City · F

8.1

Match Events

26'

Ryan Shawcross

27'

S. AgüeroPenalty

36'

S. Agüero↳ K. De Bruyne

45'

Bojan Krkić

48'

Pablo Zabaleta

49'

Raheem Sterling

49'

BojanPenalty

66'

Kevin De Bruyne

69'

Nolito← Jesús Navas

71'

Joe Allen

72'

J. Walters← G. Imbula

83'

K. Iheanacho← S. Agüero

86'

Nolito↳ K. Iheanacho

88'

Ramadan Sobhi← M. Arnautović

88'

F. Delph← K. De Bruyne

90'

John Stones

90+5'

Nolito↳ R. Sterling

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeManchester

Overview

42%Possession58%

8Total Shots12

7Corners7

12Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots12

3On Target6

3Off Target2

2Blocked4

5Inside Box9

3Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

361Total Passes493

263Accurate Passes398

73%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls13

3Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1