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Manchester City vs Stoke City — Premier League 2026

Manchester City
Manchester City
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Stoke City
Stoke City
K. Iheanacho 74', 64'
S. Agüero 43' (pen)
Fernando 35'
4/23/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 35Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Manchester City67%
×Draw19%
Stoke City14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City
2.16
Stoke City
0.87

Manchester City creates 148% more chances

Season form · 200 home / 74 away

creates per match

Manchester City
2.70
Stoke City
0.91

allows per match

Manchester City
0.83
Stoke City
1.61

finishing

Manchester City+0.00on par
Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw
86%
Manchester City or Stoke City
81%
Draw or Stoke City
33%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+
43%
Stoke City wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals
88%
Manchester City 2+ goals
63%
Manchester City 3+ goals
36%
Stoke City 1+ goals
58%
Stoke City 2+ goals
22%
Stoke City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)
83%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.83 · 200 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.70 + Stoke City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.16

Stoke City attack 0.91 + Manchester City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Manchester City scores more
67%
level
19%
Stoke City scores more
14%

Manchester City at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

72
K. IheanachoManchester CityManchester City · F
9.0

Match Events

35'
Fernando↳ Jesús Navas
43'
S. AgüeroPenalty
46'
J. Haugaard← S. Given
57'
F. Delph← David Silva
64'
K. Iheanacho↳ P. Zabaleta
65'
W. Bony← S. Agüero
72'
M. Demichelis← Fernando
74'
K. Iheanacho↳ W. Bony
75'
C. Adam← M. Arnautović

Possession

53%Manchester

Shots

11Manchester

Pass accuracy

50%Manchester

Statistics

ManchesterStoke
Overview
53%Possession47%
11Total Shots14
9Corners4
0Fouls0
Shots
11Total Shots14
6On Target2
3Off Target11
2Blocked1
7Inside Box7
4Outside Box7
Passing
53%Possession47%
501Total Passes446
412Accurate Passes371
82%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
0Fouls0
1Offsides2

Premier League: Manchester City 4–0 Stoke City

Manchester City beat Stoke City 4-0 in Premier League on April 23, 2016.

Goals: Fernando (35'), S. Agüero (43' pen), K. Iheanacho (64', 74').

Manchester City controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.