Stoke City 2–2 Leicester: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Leicester

P. Crouch 73'

X. Shaqiri 39'

R. Mahrez 60'

Iborra 33'

11/4/2017

Premier League · Round 11bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Stoke City39%

×Draw25%

Leicester36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.39

Stoke City

1.46

Leicester

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 171 away

1.31

creates per match

1.46

1.31

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Stoke City

1.31

Leicester

1.46

allows per match

Stoke City

1.31

Leicester

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par

Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

64%

Stoke City or Leicester

75%

Draw or Leicester

61%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

19%

Leicester wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

77%

Stoke City 2+ goals

43%

Stoke City 3+ goals

18%

Leicester 1+ goals

75%

Leicester 2+ goals

40%

Leicester 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

52%

Leicester (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 72 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.61 · 171 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.31 + Leicester defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.46

Leicester attack 1.46 + Stoke City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stoke City scores more

39%

level

25%

Leicester scores more

36%

Stoke City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

X. Shaqiri

Stoke City · F

8.9

Match Events

33'

Iborra↳ H. Maguire

39'

X. Shaqiri↳ E. Choupo-Moting

58'

K. Iheanacho← S. Okazaki

60'

R. Mahrez↳ W. Ndidi

66'

A. King← Iborra

69'

P. Crouch← Ramadan Sobhi

73'

P. Crouch↳ X. Shaqiri

80'

M. Albrighton← D. Gray

86'

S. Berahino← M. Diouf

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeLeicester

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots14

4Corners10

12Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots14

7On Target4

3Off Target5

1Blocked5

9Inside Box10

2Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

379Total Passes424

284Accurate Passes337

75%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls8

0Offsides5