Leicester 2–1 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Stoke City

P. Daka 44'

S. Mavididi 23'

J. Bae 48'

11/22/2025

Championship · Round 16King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Leicester39%

×Draw27%

Stoke City34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.17

Leicester

1.28

Stoke City

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

1.18

creates per match

1.09

1.24

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Leicester

1.18

Stoke City

1.09

allows per match

Leicester

1.24

Stoke City

1.39

+0.62scores more than expected

finishing

-0.46scores less than expected

finishing

Leicester+0.62scores more

Stoke City-0.46scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

66%

Leicester or Stoke City

73%

Draw or Stoke City

61%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

17%

Stoke City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

72%

Leicester 2+ goals

37%

Leicester 3+ goals

14%

Stoke City 1+ goals

69%

Stoke City 2+ goals

33%

Stoke City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

54%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.24 · 15 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.18 + Stoke City defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Stoke City attack 1.09 + Leicester defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leicester scores more

39%

level

27%

Stoke City scores more

34%

Leicester at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

A. Begovic

Leicester · G

7.7

Match Events

20'

Oliver Skipp

23'

S. Mavididi↳ H. Winks

43'

44'

48'

61'

62'

T. Seko← T. Rigo

64'

Jannik Vestergaard

66'

Luke Thomas

72'

B. Soumare← O. Skipp

83'

S. Thomas← S. Mavididi

83'

B. De Cordova-Reid← H. Winks

90+5'

Asmir Begović

90+6'

Ashley Phillips

90+1'

Aaron Cresswell

90+2'

H. Choudhury← I. Fatawu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterStoke

Overview

44%Possession56%

6Total Shots11

1.49Expected Goals (xG)1.37

0Corners10

16Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots11

2On Target5

3Off Target3

1Blocked3

3Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

371Total Passes457

310Accurate Passes399

84%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

-0.95Goals Prevented-0.95

Discipline

16Fouls11

6Yellow Cards2

3Offsides6

Match Recap: Leicester vs Stoke City

Leicester beat Stoke City 2-1 in Championship on November 22, 2025.

Goals: S. Mavididi (23'), P. Daka (44'), J. Bae (48').

Stoke City controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester.

Leicester vs Stoke City — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Leicester vs Stoke City