Stoke City 0–2 Leeds: Result & Stats | Championship

Stoke City

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Leeds

12/26/2024

Championship · Round 23bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Stoke City32%

×Draw26%

Leeds42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchLeeds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.39

Stoke City

1.18

Leeds

1.39

Leeds creates 18% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 7 away

1.30

creates per match

1.63

1.15

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Stoke City

1.30

Leeds

1.63

allows per match

Stoke City

1.15

Leeds

1.06

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.16scores more

Leeds-0.06on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Leeds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

58%

Stoke City or Leeds

74%

Draw or Leeds

68%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

13%

Leeds wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

69%

Stoke City 2+ goals

33%

Stoke City 3+ goals

12%

Leeds 1+ goals

75%

Leeds 2+ goals

40%

Leeds 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

43%

Leeds (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.15 · 28 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.06 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.30 + Leeds defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Leeds attack 1.63 + Stoke City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stoke City scores more

32%

level

26%

Leeds scores more

42%

Leeds at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff