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Leeds vs Stoke City — Championship 2018

Leeds
Leeds
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stoke City
Stoke City
3/5/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 36Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Leeds56%
×Draw26%
Stoke City18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds
1.54
Stoke City
0.76

Leeds creates 103% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 25 away

creates per match

Leeds
1.60
Stoke City
1.02

allows per match

Leeds
0.49
Stoke City
1.48

finishing

Leeds+0.28scores more
Stoke City-0.38scores less

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Leeds or draw
82%
Leeds or Stoke City
74%
Draw or Stoke City
44%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+
29%
Stoke City wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals
79%
Leeds 2+ goals
45%
Leeds 3+ goals
20%
Stoke City 1+ goals
53%
Stoke City 2+ goals
18%
Stoke City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)
75%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.49 · 8 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.60 + Stoke City defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.54

Stoke City attack 1.02 + Leeds defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Leeds scores more
56%
level
26%
Stoke City scores more
18%

Leeds at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leeds vs Stoke City

Leeds beat Stoke City 1-0 in Championship on March 5, 2024.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.