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Stoke City vs Ipswich — Championship 2018

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ipswich
Ipswich
J. Allen 60'
T. Ince 45+2'
12/8/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 21bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Stoke City33%
×Draw27%
Ipswich40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.17
Ipswich
1.33

Ipswich creates 14% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 35 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.17
Ipswich
1.43

allows per match

Stoke City
1.24
Ipswich
1.18

finishing

Stoke City+0.13scores more
Ipswich+0.14scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Ipswich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
60%
Stoke City or Ipswich
73%
Draw or Ipswich
67%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
13%
Ipswich wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
69%
Stoke City 2+ goals
33%
Stoke City 3+ goals
11%
Ipswich 1+ goals
74%
Ipswich 2+ goals
38%
Ipswich 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
45%
Ipswich (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.24 · 61 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.18 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.17 + Ipswich defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ipswich attack 1.43 + Stoke City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stoke City scores more
33%
level
27%
Ipswich scores more
40%

Ipswich at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
E. PietersStoke CityStoke City · D
7.7

Match Events

45+2'
T. Ince↳ S. Clucas
60'
J. Allen↳ E. Pieters
65'
G. Edwards← J. Lankester
66'
Gwion Edwards
70'
J. McClean← T. Ince
73'
A. Dozzell← J. Nolan
78'
Erik Pieters
80'
E. Harrison← J. Roberts
88'
D. Fletcher← S. Clucas
88'
P. Crouch← B. Afobe

Possession

50%Stoke

Shots

6Stoke

Pass accuracy

51%Stoke

Statistics

StokeIpswich
Overview
50%Possession50%
6Total Shots9
1Corners5
16Fouls15
Shots
6Total Shots9
2On Target1
2Off Target6
2Blocked2
4Inside Box4
2Outside Box5
Passing
50%Possession50%
456Total Passes441
347Accurate Passes322
76%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
16Fouls15
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Stoke City vs Ipswich

Stoke City beat Ipswich 2-0 in Championship on December 8, 2018.

Goals: T. Ince (45+2'), J. Allen (60').

Stoke City controlled possession (50%) and registered 6 shots to 9.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke.