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Ipswich vs Stoke City — Championship 2025

Ipswich
Ipswich
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stoke City
Stoke City
J. Philogene 2'
12/10/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 20Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Ipswich61%
×Draw24%
Stoke City16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich
1.71
Stoke City
0.74

Ipswich creates 131% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 7 away

creates per match

Ipswich
1.96
Stoke City
0.73

allows per match

Ipswich
0.76
Stoke City
1.46

finishing

Ipswich-0.04on par
Stoke City-0.59scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw
84%
Ipswich or Stoke City
76%
Draw or Stoke City
39%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+
34%
Stoke City wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals
82%
Ipswich 2+ goals
51%
Ipswich 3+ goals
24%
Stoke City 1+ goals
52%
Stoke City 2+ goals
17%
Stoke City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)
79%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.76 · 24 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.46 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.96 + Stoke City defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.71

Stoke City attack 0.73 + Ipswich defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ipswich scores more
61%
level
24%
Stoke City scores more
16%

Ipswich at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
L. DavisIpswichIpswich · D
7.9

Match Events

2'
J. Philogene↳ M. Nunez
61'
T. Rigo← B. Lawal
67'
M. Manhoef← L. Cisse
67'
S. Gallagher← D. Mubama
75'
J. Cajuste← J. Taylor
75'
H. Clarke← S. W. Egeli
75'
C. Akpom← I. Azon
79'
Azor Matusiwa
84'
S. Szmodics← M. Nunez
84'
B. Pearson← S. N'Zonzi
84'
R. Bozenik← J. Bae
89'
Maksym Talovierov

Possession

43%Ipswich

Shots

16Ipswich

Pass accuracy

50%Ipswich

Statistics

IpswichStoke
Overview
43%Possession57%
16Total Shots6
0.93Expected Goals (xG)0.33
3Corners4
11Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots6
6On Target1
4Off Target2
6Blocked3
9Inside Box3
7Outside Box3
Passing
43%Possession57%
413Total Passes536
345Accurate Passes445
84%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
-0.32Goals Prevented-0.32
Discipline
11Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Ipswich vs Stoke City

Ipswich beat Stoke City 1-0 in Championship on December 10, 2025.

Goals: J. Philogene (2').

Stoke City controlled possession (57%) and registered 6 shots to 16.

The match was played at Portman Road in Ipswich.