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Ipswich vs Stoke City — Championship 2025

Ipswich
Ipswich
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stoke City
Stoke City
K. Jackson 81'
L. Woolfenden 23'
8/12/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 2Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Ipswich57%
×Draw24%
Stoke City19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich
1.69
Stoke City
0.86

Ipswich creates 97% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ipswich
1.98
Stoke City
0.95

allows per match

Ipswich
0.77
Stoke City
1.40

finishing

Ipswich+0.05on par
Stoke City-0.59scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw
81%
Ipswich or Stoke City
76%
Draw or Stoke City
43%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+
32%
Stoke City wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals
82%
Ipswich 2+ goals
50%
Ipswich 3+ goals
24%
Stoke City 1+ goals
58%
Stoke City 2+ goals
21%
Stoke City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)
75%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.77 · 30 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.40 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.98 + Stoke City defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.69

Stoke City attack 0.95 + Ipswich defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ipswich scores more
57%
level
24%
Stoke City scores more
19%

Ipswich at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
W. BurnsIpswichIpswich · M
8.5

Match Events

20'
Michael Rose
23'
L. Woolfenden↳ Sam Morsy
34'
Wesley← Chiquinho
51'
Václav Hladký
68'
M. Harness← N. Broadhead
68'
K. Jackson← G. Hirst
74'
D. Gayle← R. Mmaee
77'
Janoi Donacien
81'
K. Jackson↳ W. Burns
82'
S. Sidibe← D. Johnson
83'
O. Hutchinson← C. Chaplin
89'
Sam Morsy
90+1'
J. Taylor← M. Luongo

Possession

44%Ipswich

Shots

22Ipswich

Pass accuracy

49%Ipswich

Statistics

IpswichStoke
Overview
44%Possession56%
22Total Shots9
1.93Expected Goals (xG)0.61
7Corners3
12Fouls17
Shots
22Total Shots9
10On Target2
5Off Target3
7Blocked4
12Inside Box6
10Outside Box3
Passing
44%Possession56%
381Total Passes495
283Accurate Passes383
74%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves8
Discipline
12Fouls17
3Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Ipswich vs Stoke City

Ipswich beat Stoke City 2-0 in Championship on August 12, 2023.

Goals: L. Woolfenden (23'), K. Jackson (81').

Stoke City controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 22.

The match was played at Portman Road in Ipswich, Suffolk.