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Stoke City vs Derby — Championship 2025

Stoke City
Stoke City
Preview
15:00
Derby
Derby
1/16/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 26Bet365 Stadium
Big match
47%
Stoke City
model favours
47%25%28%

Stoke City raise their game against the top half — 33% wins vs the upper half, only 32% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Stoke City47%
×Draw25%
Derby28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.57
Derby
1.15

Stoke City creates 37% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 54 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.45
Derby
1.11

allows per match

Stoke City
1.19
Derby
1.70

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
72%
Stoke City or Derby
75%
Draw or Derby
53%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
24%
Derby wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
79%
Stoke City 2+ goals
46%
Stoke City 3+ goals
21%
Derby 1+ goals
68%
Derby 2+ goals
32%
Derby 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
63%
Derby (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

Derby away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.70 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.45 + Derby defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.57

Derby attack 1.11 + Stoke City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stoke City scores more
47%
level
25%
Derby scores more
28%

Stoke City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
City
LLLLL
Derby
LWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stoke City face Derby (Championship)

Championship returns with Stoke City hosting Derby. Match starts January 16, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stoke City host Derby at Bet365 Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.