Derby 0–0 Stoke City: Result & Stats | Championship

Derby

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stoke City

5/3/2025

Championship · Round 46Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Derby46%

×Draw28%

Stoke City26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.93

Derby

1.32

Stoke City

0.93

Derby creates 42% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 10 away

1.26

creates per match

0.83

1.03

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Derby

1.26

Stoke City

0.83

allows per match

Derby

1.03

Stoke City

1.38

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

Derby-0.03on par

Stoke City-0.53scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Derby or draw

74%

Derby or Stoke City

72%

Draw or Stoke City

54%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

21%

Stoke City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

73%

Derby 2+ goals

38%

Derby 3+ goals

15%

Stoke City 1+ goals

61%

Stoke City 2+ goals

24%

Stoke City 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

63%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 35 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.38 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.26 + Stoke City defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Stoke City attack 0.83 + Derby defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Derby scores more

46%

level

28%

Stoke City scores more

26%

Derby at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

V. Johansson

Stoke City · G

7.9

Match Events

29'

Ali Al-Hamadi

60'

Ebou Adams

67'

N. Méndez-Laing← M. Harness

79'

Liam Thompson

88'

K. Roofe← J. Yates

88'

K. Jackson← L. Thompson

88'

A. Moran← Bae Jun-Ho

88'

N. Lowe← Ali Al Hamadi

90+3'

E. Pieters← C. Forsyth

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerbyStoke

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots4

1.49Expected Goals (xG)0.25

5Corners4

10Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots4

4On Target1

6Off Target2

2Blocked1

11Inside Box3

1Outside Box1

Passing

52%Possession48%

333Total Passes314

237Accurate Passes212

71%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

0.96Goals Prevented0.96

Discipline

10Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2