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Derby vs Stoke City — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stoke City
Stoke City
C. Morris 89'
J. Banel 54'
4/6/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 41Pride Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Derby48%
×Draw28%
Stoke City24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.38
Stoke City
0.89

Derby creates 55% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 29 away

creates per match

Derby
1.39
Stoke City
0.76

allows per match

Derby
1.02
Stoke City
1.38

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Derby or draw
76%
Derby or Stoke City
72%
Draw or Stoke City
52%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
23%
Stoke City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
75%
Derby 2+ goals
40%
Derby 3+ goals
16%
Stoke City 1+ goals
59%
Stoke City 2+ goals
22%
Stoke City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
67%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.02 · 49 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.39 + Stoke City defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Stoke City attack 0.76 + Derby defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Derby scores more
48%
level
28%
Stoke City scores more
24%

Derby at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
C. MorrisDerbyDerby · F
8.3

Match Events

3'
Sydney Agina
35'
J. Bae← T. Rigo
41'
J. Banel← P. Agyemang
46'
S. Gallagher← L. Cisse
54'
J. Banel↳ C. Morris
63'
L. Baker← S. N'Zonzi
63'
M. Manhoef← S. Agina
69'
Lewis Travis
78'
M. Smit←
80'
O. Fraulo← D. Ozoh
85'
Jaydon Banel
89'
C. Morris↳ B. Clark
90+2'
L. Salvesen← C. Morris
90+3'
M. Johnston← B. Brereton Diaz
90+2'
C. Allen← B. Clark

Possession

52%Derby

Shots

20Derby

Pass accuracy

51%Derby

Statistics

DerbyStoke
Overview
52%Possession48%
20Total Shots7
2.39Expected Goals (xG)0.30
5Corners3
18Fouls10
Shots
20Total Shots7
3On Target0
8Off Target6
9Blocked1
16Inside Box5
4Outside Box2
Passing
52%Possession48%
376Total Passes352
296Accurate Passes266
79%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
-0.17Goals Prevented-0.17
Discipline
18Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Championship: Derby 2–0 Stoke City

Derby beat Stoke City 2-0 in Championship on April 6, 2026.

Goals: J. Banel (54'), C. Morris (89').

Derby controlled possession (52%) and registered 20 shots to 7.

The match was played at Pride Park in Derby.