Stoke City 1–2 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Crystal Palace

X. Shaqiri 43'

P. van Aanholt 86'

J. McArthur 68'

5/5/2018

Premier League · Round 37bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Stoke City41%

×Draw26%

Crystal Palace33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.25

Stoke City

1.44

Crystal Palace

1.25

Stoke City creates 15% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 207 away

1.31

creates per match

1.18

1.31

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Stoke City

1.31

Crystal Palace

1.18

allows per match

Stoke City

1.31

Crystal Palace

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par

Crystal Palace+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

67%

Stoke City or Crystal Palace

74%

Draw or Crystal Palace

59%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

20%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

76%

Stoke City 2+ goals

42%

Stoke City 3+ goals

18%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

71%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

36%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

56%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 72 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.56 · 207 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.31 + Crystal Palace defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.44

Crystal Palace attack 1.18 + Stoke City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stoke City scores more

41%

level

26%

Crystal Palace scores more

33%

Stoke City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

X. Shaqiri

Stoke City · M

7.6

Match Events

40'

M. Kelly← J. Ward

43'

X. Shaqiri

54'

Luka Milivojević

63'

Moritz Bauer

63'

C. Benteke← Y. Cabaye

64'

Glen Johnson

64'

James Tomkins

67'

Ramadan Sobhi← P. Crouch

68'

J. McArthur↳ R. Loftus-Cheek

77'

T. Campbell← G. Johnson

81'

Badou Ndiaye

85'

Erik Pieters

86'

P. van Aanholt

88'

J. Schlupp← A. Townsend

89'

Xherdan Shaqiri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeCrystal

Overview

41%Possession59%

7Total Shots13

1Corners7

18Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots13

2On Target2

4Off Target7

1Blocked4

5Inside Box7

2Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

283Total Passes411

185Accurate Passes315

65%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls12

5Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2