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Crystal Palace vs Stoke City — Premier League 2026

Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Stoke City
Stoke City
A. Townsend 75'
J. McArthur 71'
S. Dann 11'
J. Tomkins 9'
M. Arnautović 90+4'
9/18/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Crystal Palace44%
×Draw27%
Stoke City29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crystal Palace
1.38
Stoke City
1.08

Crystal Palace creates 28% more chances

Season form · 206 home / 74 away

creates per match

Crystal Palace
1.15
Stoke City
0.91

allows per match

Crystal Palace
1.25
Stoke City
1.61

finishing

Crystal Palace+0.00on par
Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw
71%
Crystal Palace or Stoke City
73%
Draw or Stoke City
56%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+
21%
Stoke City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals
75%
Crystal Palace 2+ goals
40%
Crystal Palace 3+ goals
16%
Stoke City 1+ goals
66%
Stoke City 2+ goals
29%
Stoke City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)
60%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 206 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.15 + Stoke City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38

Stoke City attack 0.91 + Crystal Palace defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Crystal Palace scores more
44%
level
27%
Stoke City scores more
29%

Crystal Palace at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
J. McArthurCrystal PalaceCrystal Palace · M
7.7

Match Events

9'
J. Tomkins
11'
S. Dann↳ J. Puncheon
46'
D. Delaney← J. Tomkins
60'
James McArthur
68'
M. Diouf← Bojan
71'
Marko Arnautović
71'
J. McArthur
75'
A. Townsend↳ M. Kelly
77'
Jason Puncheon
78'
M. Flamini← J. Ledley
85'
Chung-Yong Lee← A. Townsend
90+4'
M. Arnautović

Possession

56%Crystal

Shots

14Crystal

Pass accuracy

53%Crystal

Statistics

CrystalStoke
Overview
56%Possession44%
14Total Shots11
10Corners5
15Fouls9
Shots
14Total Shots11
8On Target4
2Off Target6
4Blocked1
9Inside Box6
5Outside Box5
Passing
56%Possession44%
459Total Passes350
376Accurate Passes259
82%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides3

Premier League: Crystal Palace 4–1 Stoke City

Crystal Palace beat Stoke City 4-1 in Premier League on September 18, 2016.

Goals: J. Tomkins (9'), S. Dann (11'), J. McArthur (71'), A. Townsend (75'), M. Arnautović (90+4').

Crystal Palace controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Selhurst Park in London.