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Stoke City vs Crystal Palace — Premier League 2026

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
Bojan 76' (pen)
Chung-Yong Lee 88'
C. Wickham 45+1' (pen)
12/19/2015Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Stoke City41%
×Draw26%
Crystal Palace33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.43
Crystal Palace
1.25

Stoke City creates 14% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 208 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.31
Crystal Palace
1.18

allows per match

Stoke City
1.31
Crystal Palace
1.55

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par
Crystal Palace+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Crystal Palace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
67%
Stoke City or Crystal Palace
74%
Draw or Crystal Palace
59%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
20%
Crystal Palace wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
76%
Stoke City 2+ goals
42%
Stoke City 3+ goals
17%
Crystal Palace 1+ goals
71%
Crystal Palace 2+ goals
36%
Crystal Palace 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
56%
Crystal Palace (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 72 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 208 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.31 + Crystal Palace defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Crystal Palace attack 1.18 + Stoke City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stoke City scores more
41%
level
26%
Crystal Palace scores more
33%

Stoke City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
Chung-Yong LeeCrystal PalaceCrystal Palace · M
8.1

Match Events

45+1'
C. WickhamPenalty
52'
Xherdan Shaqiri
64'
M. Chamakh← C. Wickham
65'
J. Walters← G. Whelan
68'
Ibrahim Afellay
75'
C. Adam← M. van Ginkel
76'
BojanPenalty
79'
J. Mutch← J. Puncheon
81'
Chung-Yong Lee← W. Zaha
88'
Chung-Yong Lee

Possession

58%Stoke

Shots

26Stoke

Pass accuracy

53%Stoke

Statistics

StokeCrystal
Overview
58%Possession42%
26Total Shots12
7Corners3
0Fouls0
Shots
26Total Shots12
5On Target3
10Off Target7
11Blocked2
11Inside Box8
15Outside Box4
Passing
58%Possession42%
469Total Passes342
377Accurate Passes241
80%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
0Fouls0
2Yellow Cards0
0Offsides1

Premier League: Stoke City 1–2 Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace beat Stoke City 2-1 in Premier League on December 19, 2015.

Goals: C. Wickham (45+1' pen), Bojan (76' pen), Chung-Yong Lee (88').

Stoke City controlled possession (58%) and registered 26 shots to 12.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke.