Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stoke City vs Bournemouth — Championship 2018

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
D. Solanke 51'
10/19/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 13bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Stoke City33%
×Draw28%
Bournemouth39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.11
Bournemouth
1.25

Bournemouth creates 13% more chances

Season form · 175 home / 50 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.30
Bournemouth
1.40

allows per match

Stoke City
1.09
Bournemouth
0.92

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par
Bournemouth+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Bournemouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
61%
Stoke City or Bournemouth
72%
Draw or Bournemouth
67%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
13%
Bournemouth wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
67%
Stoke City 2+ goals
30%
Stoke City 3+ goals
10%
Bournemouth 1+ goals
71%
Bournemouth 2+ goals
36%
Bournemouth 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
45%
Bournemouth (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 175 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.30 + Bournemouth defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.11

Bournemouth attack 1.40 + Stoke City defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stoke City scores more
33%
level
28%
Bournemouth scores more
39%

Bournemouth at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42
M. TraversBournemouthBournemouth · G
7.5

Match Events

3'
Gavin Kilkenny
28'
M. Vrančić← N. Powell
51'
D. Solanke
59'
Jordan Zemura
60'
S. Surridge← S. Clucas
70'
T. Campbell← J. Brown
83'
B. Pearson← G. Kilkenny
90+5'
J. Lowe← R. Christie
90+2'
C. Mepham← P. Billing

Possession

48%Stoke

Shots

12Stoke

Pass accuracy

49%Stoke

Statistics

StokeBournemouth
Overview
48%Possession52%
12Total Shots10
9Corners7
3Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots10
2On Target4
8Off Target3
2Blocked3
10Inside Box3
2Outside Box7
Passing
48%Possession52%
393Total Passes442
296Accurate Passes344
75%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
3Fouls13
0Yellow Cards2
4Offsides0

Championship: Stoke City 0–1 Bournemouth

Bournemouth beat Stoke City 1-0 in Championship on October 19, 2021.

Goals: D. Solanke (51').

Bournemouth controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.