Bournemouth 2–1 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stoke City

J. Lowe 89'

D. Solanke 83'

T. Smith 20'

2/26/2022

Championship · Round 35Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Bournemouth50%

×Draw26%

Stoke City24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.98

Bournemouth

1.54

Stoke City

0.98

Bournemouth creates 57% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 178 away

1.75

creates per match

0.99

0.98

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.75

Stoke City

0.99

allows per match

Bournemouth

0.98

Stoke City

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bournemouth+0.00on par

Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

76%

Bournemouth or Stoke City

74%

Draw or Stoke City

50%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

26%

Stoke City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

79%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

45%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

20%

Stoke City 1+ goals

62%

Stoke City 2+ goals

26%

Stoke City 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

68%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 48 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.34 · 178 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.75 + Stoke City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.54

Stoke City attack 0.99 + Bournemouth defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bournemouth scores more

50%

level

26%

Stoke City scores more

24%

Bournemouth at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

T. Cantwell

Bournemouth · M

7.9

Match Events

20'

25'

32'

39'

40'

43'

57'

72'

73'

75'

S. Clucas← J. Thompson

78'

E. Marcondes← L. Cook

81'

J. Maja← J. Brown

82'

Lloyd Kelly

83'

D. Solanke↳ L. Kelly

89'

J. Lowe↳ D. Solanke

90'

B. Pearson← S. Dembélé

90+1'

S. Fletcher← T. Smith

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthStoke

Overview

68%Possession32%

15Total Shots8

6Corners3

16Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots8

5On Target3

6Off Target4

4Blocked1

11Inside Box5

4Outside Box3

Passing

68%Possession32%

461Total Passes215

381Accurate Passes129

83%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3