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Stoke City vs Bournemouth — Premier League 2026

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
M. Diouf 63'
J. Stanislas 18' (pen)
A. Surman 16'
10/21/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Stoke City46%
×Draw25%
Bournemouth29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.61
Bournemouth
1.23

Stoke City creates 31% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 141 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.31
Bournemouth
1.16

allows per match

Stoke City
1.31
Bournemouth
1.92

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par
Bournemouth+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Bournemouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
71%
Stoke City or Bournemouth
75%
Draw or Bournemouth
54%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
24%
Bournemouth wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
80%
Stoke City 2+ goals
48%
Stoke City 3+ goals
22%
Bournemouth 1+ goals
71%
Bournemouth 2+ goals
35%
Bournemouth 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
61%
Bournemouth (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 72 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.92 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.31 + Bournemouth defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.61

Bournemouth attack 1.16 + Stoke City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stoke City scores more
46%
level
25%
Bournemouth scores more
29%

Stoke City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
J. StanislasBournemouthBournemouth · M
8.2

Match Events

16'
A. Surman↳ J. Stanislas
18'
J. StanislasPenalty
59'
P. Crouch← G. Johnson
62'
S. Cook← L. Mousset
63'
M. Diouf↳ E. Choupo-Moting
67'
Lewis Cook
77'
H. Arter← L. Cook
80'
S. Berahino← Jesé
87'
M. Pugh← J. Ibe

Possession

52%Stoke

Shots

11Stoke

Pass accuracy

50%Stoke

Statistics

StokeBournemouth
Overview
52%Possession48%
11Total Shots7
8Corners3
17Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots7
3On Target3
6Off Target3
2Blocked1
9Inside Box5
2Outside Box2
Passing
52%Possession48%
407Total Passes391
287Accurate Passes282
71%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
4Offsides1

Premier League: Stoke City 1–2 Bournemouth

Bournemouth beat Stoke City 2-1 in Premier League on October 21, 2017.

Goals: A. Surman (16'), J. Stanislas (18' pen), M. Diouf (63').

Stoke City controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke.