Bournemouth 1–3 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Stoke City

M. Ritchie 57'

Joselu 55'

I. Afellay 52'

G. Imbula 9'

2/13/2016

Premier League · Round 26Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Bournemouth45%

×Draw26%

Stoke City29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.17

Bournemouth

1.51

Stoke City

1.17

Bournemouth creates 29% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 74 away

1.41

creates per match

0.91

1.42

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.41

Stoke City

0.91

allows per match

Bournemouth

1.42

Stoke City

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bournemouth+0.00on par

Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

71%

Bournemouth or Stoke City

74%

Draw or Stoke City

55%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

22%

Stoke City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

78%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

44%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

19%

Stoke City 1+ goals

69%

Stoke City 2+ goals

33%

Stoke City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

60%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.42 · 143 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.41 + Stoke City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.51

Stoke City attack 0.91 + Bournemouth defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bournemouth scores more

45%

level

26%

Stoke City scores more

29%

Bournemouth at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

G. Imbula

Stoke City · M

8.0

Match Events

9'

G. Imbula

21'

Mame Biram Diouf

36'

Marc Pugh

46'

J. King← M. Pugh

46'

M. Ritchie← D. Gosling

46'

Dionatan← Muniesa

52'

I. Afellay↳ J. Walters

53'

Joselu← G. Johnson

55'

Joselu↳ X. Shaqiri

57'

M. Ritchie↳ C. Daniels

74'

Andrew Surman

75'

J. Iturbe← J. Stanislas

85'

Simon Francis

86'

S. Ireland← I. Afellay

90'

Harry Arter

90'

Giannelli Imbula

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthStoke

Overview

65%Possession35%

11Total Shots11

9Corners2

7Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots11

2On Target6

4Off Target4

5Blocked1

7Inside Box4

4Outside Box7

Passing

65%Possession35%

550Total Passes290

471Accurate Passes221

86%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls18

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2