Stoke City 2–0 Blackpool: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Blackpool

J. Brown 75'

H. Clarke 33'

8/6/2022

Championship · Round 2bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Stoke City46%

×Draw27%

Blackpool27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.01

Stoke City

1.41

Blackpool

1.01

Stoke City creates 40% more chances

Season form · 175 home / 52 away

1.30

creates per match

0.92

1.09

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Stoke City

1.30

Blackpool

0.92

allows per match

Stoke City

1.09

Blackpool

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par

Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

73%

Stoke City or Blackpool

73%

Draw or Blackpool

54%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

22%

Blackpool wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

76%

Stoke City 2+ goals

41%

Stoke City 3+ goals

17%

Blackpool 1+ goals

64%

Blackpool 2+ goals

27%

Blackpool 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

63%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 175 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.30 + Blackpool defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.41

Blackpool attack 0.92 + Stoke City defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stoke City scores more

46%

level

27%

Blackpool scores more

27%

Stoke City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Tymon

Stoke City · M

8.5

Match Events

21'

T. Corbeanu← G. Madine

33'

H. Clarke↳ J. Tymon

46'

K. Dougall← M. Virtue-Thick

70'

C. Patino← L. Fiorini

74'

Lewis Baker

75'

J. Brown↳ J. Tymon

78'

Kenneth Dougall

81'

T. Campbell← D. Gayle

82'

S. Lavery← J. Yates

84'

S. Clucas← W. Smallbone

90+5'

Josh Laurent

90+2'

Callum Connolly

90+4'

J. Thompson← J. Tymon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeBlackpool

Overview

49%Possession51%

20Total Shots10

5Corners6

10Fouls8

Shots

20Total Shots10

7On Target0

6Off Target4

7Blocked6

12Inside Box5

8Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

391Total Passes397

318Accurate Passes308

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0