Blackpool 0–1 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stoke City

S. Fletcher 79'

11/3/2021

Championship · Round 16Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Blackpool40%

×Draw27%

Stoke City32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.13

Blackpool

1.29

Stoke City

1.13

Blackpool creates 14% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 178 away

1.23

creates per match

0.99

1.27

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Blackpool

1.23

Stoke City

0.99

allows per match

Blackpool

1.27

Stoke City

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par

Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

68%

Blackpool or Stoke City

73%

Draw or Stoke City

60%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

18%

Stoke City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

72%

Blackpool 2+ goals

37%

Blackpool 3+ goals

14%

Stoke City 1+ goals

68%

Stoke City 2+ goals

31%

Stoke City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

55%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.34 · 178 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.23 + Stoke City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Stoke City attack 0.99 + Blackpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Blackpool scores more

40%

level

27%

Stoke City scores more

32%

Blackpool at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

S. Fletcher

Stoke City · F

8.0

Match Events

16'

27'

29'

37'

44'

45+2'

46'

L. Østigård← B. Wilmot

69'

G. Madine← J. Yates

69'

T. Campbell← J. Brown

78'

M. Vrančić← J. Thompson

79'

J. Bowler← D. Mitchell

79'

S. Fletcher

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolStoke

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots11

4Corners4

6Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots11

1On Target4

5Off Target5

3Blocked2

4Inside Box4

5Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

448Total Passes432

323Accurate Passes312

72%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls9

0Yellow Cards5

5Offsides1