Stoke City 2–1 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Aston Villa

M. Arnautović 56', 51' (pen)

L. Bacuna 79'

2/27/2016

Premier League · Round 27bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Stoke City42%

×Draw26%

Aston Villa32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.19

Stoke City

1.42

Aston Villa

1.19

Stoke City creates 19% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 145 away

1.31

creates per match

1.07

1.31

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Stoke City

1.31

Aston Villa

1.07

allows per match

Stoke City

1.31

Aston Villa

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par

Aston Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

68%

Stoke City or Aston Villa

74%

Draw or Aston Villa

58%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

20%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

76%

Stoke City 2+ goals

41%

Stoke City 3+ goals

17%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

70%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

33%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

57%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 72 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.52 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.31 + Aston Villa defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Aston Villa attack 1.07 + Stoke City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stoke City scores more

42%

level

26%

Aston Villa scores more

32%

Stoke City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Arnautović

Stoke City · M

8.0

Match Events

36'

Idrissa Gueye

45'

Alan Hutton

51'

M. ArnautovićPenalty

56'

M. Arnautović↳ X. Shaqiri

58'

S. Sinclair← Carles Gil

71'

Bojan← I. Afellay

71'

Joselu← J. Walters

77'

R. Gestede← J. Veretout

79'

L. Bacuna↳ R. Gestede

89'

M. Diouf← M. Arnautović

90'

Jores Okore

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeAston

Overview

55%Possession45%

11Total Shots5

11Corners0

0Fouls0

Shots

11Total Shots5

3On Target1

6Off Target4

2Blocked0

7Inside Box3

4Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

492Total Passes408

391Accurate Passes305

79%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

0Fouls0

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2