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Aston Villa vs Stoke City — Championship 2025

Aston Villa
Aston Villa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Stoke City
Stoke City
J. Kodjia 84'
T. Abraham 73' (pen)
B. Afobe 78' (pen)
J. Allen 47'
12/15/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 22Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Aston Villa45%
×Draw27%
Stoke City28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aston Villa
1.42
Stoke City
1.07

Aston Villa creates 33% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 38 away

creates per match

Aston Villa
1.50
Stoke City
0.76

allows per match

Aston Villa
1.38
Stoke City
1.34

finishing

Aston Villa+0.00on par
Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw
72%
Aston Villa or Stoke City
73%
Draw or Stoke City
55%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+
22%
Stoke City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals
76%
Aston Villa 2+ goals
41%
Aston Villa 3+ goals
17%
Stoke City 1+ goals
66%
Stoke City 2+ goals
29%
Stoke City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)
61%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.50 + Stoke City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

Stoke City attack 0.76 + Aston Villa defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aston Villa scores more
45%
level
27%
Stoke City scores more
28%

Aston Villa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
J. KodjiaAston VillaAston Villa · F
7.5

Match Events

31'
Thomas Ince
47'
J. Allen↳ J. McClean
52'
James McClean
66'
J. Kodjia← A. El Ghazi
72'
Ryan Shawcross
72'
Erik Pieters
73'
T. AbrahamPenalty
74'
B. Afobe← S. Berahino
78'
B. AfobePenalty
82'
Jonathan Kodjia
84'
J. Kodjia↳ Y. Bolasie
85'
S. Hogan← G. Whelan
89'
P. Crouch← T. Ince
90'
John McGinn

Possession

56%Aston

Shots

9Aston

Pass accuracy

51%Aston

Statistics

AstonStoke
Overview
56%Possession44%
9Total Shots16
8Corners3
10Fouls16
Shots
9Total Shots16
5On Target8
3Off Target8
1Blocked0
5Inside Box10
4Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
484Total Passes383
389Accurate Passes293
80%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls16
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Aston Villa vs Stoke City

Aston Villa and Stoke City drew 2-2 in Championship on December 15, 2018.

Goals: J. Allen (47'), T. Abraham (73' pen), B. Afobe (78' pen), J. Kodjia (84').

Aston Villa controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 16.

The match was played at Villa Park in Birmingham.