Stockport County 1–3 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Stockport County

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Stevenage

K. Wootton 62'

L. Thompson 64'

J. Reid 53'

C. Campbell 22'

12/13/2025

League One · Round 20Edgeley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Stockport County50%

×Draw24%

Stevenage26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stockport CountyExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.16

Stockport County

1.71

Stevenage

1.16

Stockport County creates 47% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.70

creates per match

0.98

1.34

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Stockport County

1.70

Stevenage

0.98

allows per match

Stockport County

1.34

Stevenage

1.71

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

Stockport County-0.07on par

Stevenage+0.27scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw

74%

Stockport County or Stevenage

76%

Draw or Stevenage

50%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+

27%

Stevenage wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals

82%

Stockport County 2+ goals

51%

Stockport County 3+ goals

24%

Stevenage 1+ goals

69%

Stevenage 2+ goals

32%

Stevenage 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)

66%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.34 · 8 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.71 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 1.70 + Stevenage defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.71

Stevenage attack 0.98 + Stockport County defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stockport County scores more

50%

level

24%

Stevenage scores more

26%

Stockport County at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

L. Thompson

Stevenage · M

8.2

Match Events

22'

C. Campbell↳ L. James-Wildin

46'

O. Dodgson← T. Edun

46'

O. Moxon← O. Bailey

46'

J. Fevrier← M. Mothersille

53'

J. Reid↳ L. James-Wildin

62'

K. Wootton↳ O. Dodgson

63'

N. Lowe← C. Gardner

64'

J. Hunt← T. Onyango

64'

L. Thompson

66'

S. Earley← P. Patterson

76'

J. Young← J. Reid

76'

R. Doherty← L. Thompson

79'

Lewis Freestone

83'

Jack Hunt

85'

Daniel Phillips

90+3'

J. Pattenden← J. Houghton

90+3'

B. Lubala← D. Phillips

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StockportStevenage

Overview

68%Possession32%

14Total Shots7

1.29Expected Goals (xG)0.80

5Corners3

11Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots7

4On Target4

5Off Target1

5Blocked2

10Inside Box6

4Outside Box1

Passing

68%Possession32%

546Total Passes265

457Accurate Passes177

84%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2