Stockport County 3–0 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Stockport County

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stevenage

J. Diamond 72'

L. James-Wildin 50' (OG)

J. Fevrier 25'

4/1/2025

League One · Round 40Edgeley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Stockport County50%

×Draw23%

Stevenage26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stockport CountyExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.21

Stockport County

1.77

Stevenage

1.21

Stockport County creates 46% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.76

creates per match

1.01

1.41

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Stockport County

1.76

Stevenage

1.01

allows per match

Stockport County

1.41

Stevenage

1.77

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Stockport County-0.05on par

Stevenage-0.01on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw

74%

Stockport County or Stevenage

77%

Draw or Stevenage

50%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+

28%

Stevenage wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals

83%

Stockport County 2+ goals

53%

Stockport County 3+ goals

26%

Stevenage 1+ goals

70%

Stevenage 2+ goals

34%

Stevenage 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)

66%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.41 · 7 matches

Stevenage away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.77 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 1.76 + Stevenage defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.77

Stevenage attack 1.01 + Stockport County defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stockport County scores more

50%

level

23%

Stevenage scores more

26%

Stockport County at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Fevrier

Stockport County · M

7.9

Match Events

25'

J. Fevrier↳ J. Diamond

38'

Daniel Kemp

50'

L. James-WildinOwn goal

60'

60'

65'

66'

67'

K. Knoyle← J. Fevrier

72'

J. Diamond↳ L. Bate

78'

D. Sweeney← J. Roberts

78'

J. Young← J. Reid

78'

L. Freestone← D. Butler

79'

N. Powell← L. Bate

79'

O. Moxon← J. Diamond

79'

M. Hamilton← I. Olaofe

81'

Lewis Freestone

90'

B. Andrésson← K. Wootton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StockportStevenage

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots12

4Corners4

12Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots12

3On Target1

6Off Target9

3Blocked2

11Inside Box4

1Outside Box8

Passing

49%Possession51%

376Total Passes387

280Accurate Passes278

74%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4