Stockport County vs Doncaster — League One 2025
Stockport County have won 5 of the last 5 meetings
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 26+ matches
Stockport County58%
Doncaster19%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Stockport County creates 92% more chances
Season form · 26 home / 34 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Stockport County ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Stockport County at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches
Doncaster away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.76 · 34 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Stockport County attack 1.81 + Doncaster defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.79
Doncaster attack 0.82 + Stockport County defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.93
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 58%?"
Stockport County at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 58% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Doncaster win just 17% against the top half (vs 59% against the bottom)
- Stockport County sit 4, Doncaster 14 in the table
- Doncaster fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.9 expected)
- Stockport County outscore their xG (1.7 vs 1.3 expected)
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Contrasting stylesHead-to-head
5 previous meetings
Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Lincoln
Cardiff
BoltonStockport County
Bradford
Stevenage
Luton
Plymouth
Huddersfield
Mansfield Town
Wycombe
Reading
BlackpoolDoncaster
Barnsley
Wigan
Burton Albion
Peterborough
AFC Wimbledon
Leyton Orient
Exeter City
Port Vale
Rotherham
NorthamptonIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Stockport County host Doncaster on Tuesday, 19 January 2027 at 19:45. The match is part of the League One 2025/2026 season.
Stockport County face Doncaster (League One)
League One returns with Stockport County hosting Doncaster. Match starts January 19, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Stockport County host Doncaster at Edgeley Park.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.