Stockport County 4–2 Doncaster: Result & Stats

Stockport County

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Doncaster

12/29/2025

League One · Round 23Edgeley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Stockport County58%

×Draw23%

Doncaster19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stockport CountyExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.93

Stockport County

1.79

Doncaster

0.93

Stockport County creates 92% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 34 away

1.81

creates per match

0.82

1.04

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Stockport County

1.81

Doncaster

0.82

allows per match

Stockport County

1.04

Doncaster

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stockport County+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw

81%

Stockport County or Doncaster

77%

Draw or Doncaster

42%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+

33%

Doncaster wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals

83%

Stockport County 2+ goals

53%

Stockport County 3+ goals

26%

Doncaster 1+ goals

61%

Doncaster 2+ goals

24%

Doncaster 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)

75%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Doncaster away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.76 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 1.81 + Doncaster defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.79

Doncaster attack 0.82 + Stockport County defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Stockport County scores more

58%

level

23%

Doncaster scores more

19%

Stockport County at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff