Doncaster 0–1 Stockport County: Result & Stats

Doncaster

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stockport County

O. Norwood 11'

3/3/2026

League #46 · Semi-finalsEco-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Doncaster22%

×Draw25%

Stockport County53%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchStockport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.58

Doncaster

0.92

Stockport County

1.58

Stockport County creates 72% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

1.67

1.50

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

Doncaster

1.50

Stockport County

1.67

allows per match

Doncaster

1.50

Stockport County

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

Stockport County+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Stockport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

47%

Doncaster or Stockport County

75%

Draw or Stockport County

78%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

7%

Stockport County wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

60%

Doncaster 2+ goals

23%

Doncaster 3+ goals

7%

Stockport County 1+ goals

79%

Stockport County 2+ goals

47%

Stockport County 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

29%

Stockport County (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Stockport County away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.50 + Stockport County defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.92

Stockport County attack 1.67 + Doncaster defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Doncaster scores more

22%

level

25%

Stockport County scores more

53%

Stockport County at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Z. Clark

Doncaster · G

8.9

Match Events

11'

O. Norwood

46'

O. Bailey← G. Broadbent

46'

L. Molyneux← T. Nixon

46'

B. Hanlan← D. Robinson

46'

J. Senior← J. Maxwell

46'

R. Dixon← J. Stokes

53'

Roman Dixon

66'

T. Olaofe← A. Sidibeh

66'

O. Bailey← L. Bate

79'

Matthew Pearson

82'

H. Adelakun← B. Close

90'

Luke Molyneux

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DoncasterStockport

Overview

50%Possession50%

9Total Shots17

3Corners8

12Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots17

2On Target10

5Off Target5

2Blocked2

4Inside Box13

5Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

390Total Passes393

277Accurate Passes276

71%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

9Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides5