Stockholm Internazionale 4–0 Lidingö

Stockholm Internazionale

FT

4 – 0

Lidingö

9/25/2021

Division 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 26Kristinebergs IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Stockholm Internazionale55%

×Draw21%

Lidingö25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stockholm InternazionaleExpected goals in this matchLidingö

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.41

Stockholm Internazionale

2.18

Lidingö

1.41

Stockholm Internazionale creates 55% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 43 away

2.45

creates per match

2.02

0.80

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Stockholm Internazionale

2.45

Lidingö

2.02

allows per match

Stockholm Internazionale

0.80

Lidingö

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stockholm Internazionale+0.00on par

Lidingö+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockholm Internazionale ↓

Lidingö →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Stockholm Internazionale or draw

75%

Stockholm Internazionale or Lidingö

79%

Draw or Lidingö

45%

Winning margin

Stockholm Internazionale wins by 2+

33%

Lidingö wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stockholm Internazionale 1+ goals

89%

Stockholm Internazionale 2+ goals

64%

Stockholm Internazionale 3+ goals

37%

Lidingö 1+ goals

76%

Lidingö 2+ goals

41%

Lidingö 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Stockholm Internazionale (draw refunded)

69%

Lidingö (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockholm Internazionale at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Lidingö away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.91 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockholm Internazionale attack 2.45 + Lidingö defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.18

Lidingö attack 2.02 + Stockholm Internazionale defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Stockholm Internazionale scores more

55%

level

21%

Lidingö scores more

25%

Stockholm Internazionale at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Stockholm Internazionale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff