Lidingö 2–4 Stockholm Internazionale

Lidingö

FT

2 – 4

Stockholm Internazionale

8/22/2020

Division 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 5Lidingövallen 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Lidingö24%

×Draw19%

Stockholm Internazionale57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LidingöExpected goals in this matchStockholm Internazionale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

2.40

Lidingö

1.52

Stockholm Internazionale

2.40

Stockholm Internazionale creates 58% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 21 away

1.93

creates per match

3.00

1.80

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Lidingö

1.93

Stockholm Internazionale

3.00

allows per match

Lidingö

1.80

Stockholm Internazionale

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lidingö+0.00on par

Stockholm Internazionale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lidingö ↓

Stockholm Internazionale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Lidingö or draw

43%

Lidingö or Stockholm Internazionale

81%

Draw or Stockholm Internazionale

76%

Winning margin

Lidingö wins by 2+

11%

Stockholm Internazionale wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Lidingö 1+ goals

78%

Lidingö 2+ goals

45%

Lidingö 3+ goals

20%

Stockholm Internazionale 1+ goals

91%

Stockholm Internazionale 2+ goals

69%

Stockholm Internazionale 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Lidingö (draw refunded)

30%

Stockholm Internazionale (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lidingö at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.80 · 40 matches

Stockholm Internazionale away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lidingö attack 1.93 + Stockholm Internazionale defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.52

Stockholm Internazionale attack 3.00 + Lidingö defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lidingö scores more

24%

level

19%

Stockholm Internazionale scores more

57%

Stockholm Internazionale at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Stockholm Internazionale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff