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Stockholm Internazionale vs AFC Eskilstuna — Ettan - Norra 2019

Stockholm Internazionale
Stockholm Internazionale
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
6/2/2025Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 11Kristinebergs IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Stockholm Internazionale55%
×Draw21%
AFC Eskilstuna24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stockholm Internazionale
2.17
AFC Eskilstuna
1.38

Stockholm Internazionale creates 57% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 37 away

creates per match

Stockholm Internazionale
1.97
AFC Eskilstuna
1.76

allows per match

Stockholm Internazionale
0.99
AFC Eskilstuna
2.38

finishing

Stockholm Internazionale+0.00on par
AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockholm Internazionale ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Stockholm Internazionale or draw
76%
Stockholm Internazionale or AFC Eskilstuna
79%
Draw or AFC Eskilstuna
45%

Winning margin

Stockholm Internazionale wins by 2+
33%
AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stockholm Internazionale 1+ goals
89%
Stockholm Internazionale 2+ goals
64%
Stockholm Internazionale 3+ goals
36%
AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
75%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
40%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Stockholm Internazionale (draw refunded)
70%
AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockholm Internazionale at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.99 · 68 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.38 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockholm Internazionale attack 1.97 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.17

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.76 + Stockholm Internazionale defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Stockholm Internazionale scores more
55%
level
21%
AFC Eskilstuna scores more
24%

Stockholm Internazionale at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Stockholm Internazionale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: Stockholm Internazionale 4–0 AFC Eskilstuna

Stockholm Internazionale beat AFC Eskilstuna 4-0 in Ettan - Norra on June 2, 2025.

The match was played at Kristinebergs IP in Stockholm.