Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AFC Eskilstuna vs Stockholm Internazionale — Ettan - Norra 2019

AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Stockholm Internazionale
Stockholm Internazionale
10/25/2025Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 28Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna33%
×Draw24%
Stockholm Internazionale43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Eskilstuna
1.41
Stockholm Internazionale
1.62

Stockholm Internazionale creates 15% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 66 away

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna
1.68
Stockholm Internazionale
1.65

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna
1.59
Stockholm Internazionale
1.14

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par
Stockholm Internazionale+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Stockholm Internazionale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw
57%
AFC Eskilstuna or Stockholm Internazionale
76%
Draw or Stockholm Internazionale
67%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
15%
Stockholm Internazionale wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
76%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
41%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
17%
Stockholm Internazionale 1+ goals
80%
Stockholm Internazionale 2+ goals
48%
Stockholm Internazionale 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
44%
Stockholm Internazionale (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

Stockholm Internazionale away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.68 + Stockholm Internazionale defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.41

Stockholm Internazionale attack 1.65 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more
33%
level
24%
Stockholm Internazionale scores more
43%

Stockholm Internazionale at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stockholm Internazionale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Eskilstuna vs Stockholm Internazionale

Stockholm Internazionale beat AFC Eskilstuna 3-0 in Ettan - Norra on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.