Zorya Luhansk 1–1 SC Braga: Result & Stats

Zorya Luhansk

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

SC Braga

8/9/2018

UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying RoundSlavutych-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Zorya Luhansk32%

×Draw25%

SC Braga43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zorya LuhanskExpected goals in this matchSC Braga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.58

Zorya Luhansk

1.33

SC Braga

1.58

SC Braga creates 19% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 29 away

1.25

creates per match

1.66

1.50

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.25

SC Braga

1.66

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.50

SC Braga

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

SC Braga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

SC Braga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw

57%

Zorya Luhansk or SC Braga

75%

Draw or SC Braga

68%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

14%

SC Braga wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

74%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

38%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

15%

SC Braga 1+ goals

79%

SC Braga 2+ goals

47%

SC Braga 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

43%

SC Braga (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

SC Braga away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.25 + SC Braga defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

SC Braga attack 1.66 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more

32%

level

25%

SC Braga scores more

43%

SC Braga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SC Braga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff