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SC Braga vs Zorya Luhansk — UEFA Europa League 2026

SC Braga
SC Braga
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
8/16/2018UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying RoundEstádio Municipal de Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SC Braga56%
×Draw22%
Zorya Luhansk22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Braga
1.97
Zorya Luhansk
1.15

SC Braga creates 71% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 8 away

creates per match

SC Braga
2.07
Zorya Luhansk
1.25

allows per match

SC Braga
1.04
Zorya Luhansk
1.88

finishing

SC Braga+0.00on par
Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Braga ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SC Braga or draw
78%
SC Braga or Zorya Luhansk
78%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
44%

Winning margin

SC Braga wins by 2+
33%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SC Braga 1+ goals
86%
SC Braga 2+ goals
58%
SC Braga 3+ goals
31%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
68%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
32%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SC Braga (draw refunded)
72%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Braga at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Braga attack 2.07 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.97

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.25 + SC Braga defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

SC Braga scores more
56%
level
22%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
22%

SC Braga at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "SC Braga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: SC Braga 2–2 Zorya Luhansk

SC Braga and Zorya Luhansk drew 2-2 in UEFA Europa League on August 16, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Braga in Braga.