Stockay-Warfusée 1–0 Excelsior Virton

Stockay-Warfusée

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Excelsior Virton

S. Koné 70'

3/2/2025

League #487 · ACFF - Promotion Round - 1Terrain rue Joseph Wauters

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Stockay-Warfusée40%

×Draw25%

Excelsior Virton35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stockay-WarfuséeExpected goals in this matchExcelsior Virton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.36

Stockay-Warfusée

1.48

Excelsior Virton

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

1.17

creates per match

1.40

1.33

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Stockay-Warfusée

1.17

Excelsior Virton

1.40

allows per match

Stockay-Warfusée

1.33

Excelsior Virton

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stockay-Warfusée+0.00on par

Excelsior Virton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockay-Warfusée ↓

Excelsior Virton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Stockay-Warfusée or draw

65%

Stockay-Warfusée or Excelsior Virton

75%

Draw or Excelsior Virton

60%

Winning margin

Stockay-Warfusée wins by 2+

19%

Excelsior Virton wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Stockay-Warfusée 1+ goals

77%

Stockay-Warfusée 2+ goals

43%

Stockay-Warfusée 3+ goals

19%

Excelsior Virton 1+ goals

74%

Excelsior Virton 2+ goals

39%

Excelsior Virton 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Stockay-Warfusée (draw refunded)

54%

Excelsior Virton (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockay-Warfusée at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Excelsior Virton away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockay-Warfusée attack 1.17 + Excelsior Virton defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.48

Excelsior Virton attack 1.40 + Stockay-Warfusée defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stockay-Warfusée scores more

40%

level

25%

Excelsior Virton scores more

35%

Stockay-Warfusée at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stockay-Warfusée will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

K. Benkahlouche← L. Mokdad

70'

S. Koné

72'

J. Vancamp← I. Errahmouni

78'

A. Patris← A. Belhadj

82'

I. Kambuania← Z. Nadrani

86'

H. Bentebbal← E. Njo

90+3'

L. Alfieri

90'

A. Sternon← T. Panepinto

Stockay-Warfusée

Excelsior

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: S. Demets

78'▲A. Patris←▼A. Belhadj

82'▲I. Kambuania←▼Z. Nadrani

90'▲A. Sternon←▼T. Panepinto

Stockay-Warfusée substitutes

PatrisKambuaniaSternon

Manager: P. Carzaniga

53'▲K. Benkahlouche←▼L. Mokdad

72'▲J. Vancamp←▼I. Errahmouni

86'▲H. Bentebbal←▼E. Njo

Excelsior Virton substitutes

BenkahloucheVancampBentebbal

Match Recap: Stockay-Warfusée vs Excelsior Virton

Stockay-Warfusée beat Excelsior Virton 1-0 in League #487 on March 2, 2025.

Goals: S. Koné (70').

The match was played at Terrain rue Joseph Wauters in Saint-Georges-sur-Meuse.

Stockay-Warfusée vs Excelsior Virton — League #487 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Stockay-Warfusée vs Excelsior Virton