Excelsior Virton 2–1 Stockay-Warfusée

Excelsior Virton

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Stockay-Warfusée

L. Mokdad 73'

I. Mbaye 30'

S. Koné 35' (pen)

4/5/2025

League #487 · ACFF - Promotion Round - 6Stade Yvan Georges

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Excelsior Virton54%

×Draw23%

Stockay-Warfusée23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Excelsior VirtonExpected goals in this matchStockay-Warfusée

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.06

Excelsior Virton

1.78

Stockay-Warfusée

1.06

Excelsior Virton creates 68% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 18 away

2.00

creates per match

1.11

1.00

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Excelsior Virton

2.00

Stockay-Warfusée

1.11

allows per match

Excelsior Virton

1.00

Stockay-Warfusée

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Excelsior Virton+0.00on par

Stockay-Warfusée+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior Virton ↓

Stockay-Warfusée →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Excelsior Virton or draw

77%

Excelsior Virton or Stockay-Warfusée

77%

Draw or Stockay-Warfusée

46%

Winning margin

Excelsior Virton wins by 2+

30%

Stockay-Warfusée wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Excelsior Virton 1+ goals

83%

Excelsior Virton 2+ goals

53%

Excelsior Virton 3+ goals

26%

Stockay-Warfusée 1+ goals

65%

Stockay-Warfusée 2+ goals

29%

Stockay-Warfusée 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Excelsior Virton (draw refunded)

71%

Stockay-Warfusée (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior Virton at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Stockay-Warfusée away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior Virton attack 2.00 + Stockay-Warfusée defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.78

Stockay-Warfusée attack 1.11 + Excelsior Virton defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Excelsior Virton scores more

54%

level

23%

Stockay-Warfusée scores more

23%

Excelsior Virton at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Excelsior Virton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

I. Mbaye

35'

S. KonéPenalty

46'

T. Panepinto← G. Kenmoe

53'

R. Goteni← G. Arib

73'

L. Mokdad

79'

S. Sylla← Z. Nadrani

87'

S. Hassaini← M. De Almeida

88'

I. Kambuania← Q. Bakija

Excelsior

Stockay-Warfusée

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: P. Carzaniga

53'▲R. Goteni←▼G. Arib

87'▲S. Hassaini←▼M. De Almeida

Excelsior Virton substitutes

GoteniHassaini

Manager: S. Demets

46'▲T. Panepinto←▼G. Kenmoe

79'▲S. Sylla←▼Z. Nadrani

88'▲I. Kambuania←▼Q. Bakija

Stockay-Warfusée substitutes

PanepintoSyllaKambuania

League #487: Excelsior Virton 2–1 Stockay-Warfusée

Excelsior Virton beat Stockay-Warfusée 2-1 in League #487 on April 5, 2025.

Goals: I. Mbaye (30'), S. Koné (35' pen), L. Mokdad (73').

The match was played at Stade Yvan Georges in Virton.

Excelsior Virton vs Stockay-Warfusée — League #487 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #487: Excelsior Virton 2–1 Stockay-Warfusée