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Stockay-Warfusée vs Crossing Schaerbeek — League #487 2026

Stockay-Warfusée
Stockay-Warfusée
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Crossing Schaerbeek
Crossing Schaerbeek
3/15/2026League #487League #487 · ACFF - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stockay-Warfusée41%
×Draw25%
Crossing Schaerbeek33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stockay-Warfusée
1.46
Crossing Schaerbeek
1.29

Stockay-Warfusée creates 13% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 4 away

creates per match

Stockay-Warfusée
1.17
Crossing Schaerbeek
1.25

allows per match

Stockay-Warfusée
1.33
Crossing Schaerbeek
1.75

finishing

Stockay-Warfusée+0.00on par
Crossing Schaerbeek+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockay-Warfusée ↓

Crossing Schaerbeek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Stockay-Warfusée or draw
67%
Stockay-Warfusée or Crossing Schaerbeek
75%
Draw or Crossing Schaerbeek
59%

Winning margin

Stockay-Warfusée wins by 2+
20%
Crossing Schaerbeek wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stockay-Warfusée 1+ goals
77%
Stockay-Warfusée 2+ goals
43%
Stockay-Warfusée 3+ goals
18%
Crossing Schaerbeek 1+ goals
72%
Crossing Schaerbeek 2+ goals
37%
Crossing Schaerbeek 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stockay-Warfusée (draw refunded)
55%
Crossing Schaerbeek (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockay-Warfusée at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Crossing Schaerbeek away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockay-Warfusée attack 1.17 + Crossing Schaerbeek defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Crossing Schaerbeek attack 1.25 + Stockay-Warfusée defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stockay-Warfusée scores more
41%
level
25%
Crossing Schaerbeek scores more
33%

Stockay-Warfusée at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stockay-Warfusée will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stockay-Warfusée vs Crossing Schaerbeek

Stockay-Warfusée and Crossing Schaerbeek drew 2-2 in League #487 on March 15, 2026.