Crossing Schaerbeek 1–2 Stockay-Warfusée

Crossing Schaerbeek

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Stockay-Warfusée

12/14/2025

League #487 · ACFF - 17Stade Renan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Crossing Schaerbeek47%

×Draw22%

Stockay-Warfusée31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crossing SchaerbeekExpected goals in this matchStockay-Warfusée

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.53

Crossing Schaerbeek

1.94

Stockay-Warfusée

1.53

Crossing Schaerbeek creates 27% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

2.25

creates per match

1.06

2.00

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Crossing Schaerbeek

2.25

Stockay-Warfusée

1.06

allows per match

Crossing Schaerbeek

2.00

Stockay-Warfusée

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crossing Schaerbeek+0.00on par

Stockay-Warfusée+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crossing Schaerbeek ↓

Stockay-Warfusée →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Crossing Schaerbeek or draw

69%

Crossing Schaerbeek or Stockay-Warfusée

78%

Draw or Stockay-Warfusée

53%

Winning margin

Crossing Schaerbeek wins by 2+

26%

Stockay-Warfusée wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Crossing Schaerbeek 1+ goals

86%

Crossing Schaerbeek 2+ goals

58%

Crossing Schaerbeek 3+ goals

30%

Stockay-Warfusée 1+ goals

78%

Stockay-Warfusée 2+ goals

45%

Stockay-Warfusée 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Crossing Schaerbeek (draw refunded)

61%

Stockay-Warfusée (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crossing Schaerbeek at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Stockay-Warfusée away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crossing Schaerbeek attack 2.25 + Stockay-Warfusée defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.94

Stockay-Warfusée attack 1.06 + Crossing Schaerbeek defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Crossing Schaerbeek scores more

47%

level

22%

Stockay-Warfusée scores more

31%

Crossing Schaerbeek at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Crossing Schaerbeek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff