Stjarnan 2–0 Fram Reykjavik: Result & Stats

Stjarnan

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fram Reykjavik

O. Eggertsson 87'

E. Atlason 41'

5/10/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 6Samsung völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Stjarnan48%

×Draw21%

Fram Reykjavik31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StjarnanExpected goals in this matchFram Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.70

Stjarnan

2.13

Fram Reykjavik

1.70

Stjarnan creates 25% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 22 away

2.16

creates per match

1.59

1.80

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Stjarnan

2.16

Fram Reykjavik

1.59

allows per match

Stjarnan

1.80

Fram Reykjavik

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stjarnan+0.00on par

Fram Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stjarnan ↓

Fram Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Stjarnan or draw

69%

Stjarnan or Fram Reykjavik

79%

Draw or Fram Reykjavik

52%

Winning margin

Stjarnan wins by 2+

28%

Fram Reykjavik wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Stjarnan 1+ goals

88%

Stjarnan 2+ goals

63%

Stjarnan 3+ goals

35%

Fram Reykjavik 1+ goals

82%

Fram Reykjavik 2+ goals

51%

Fram Reykjavik 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Stjarnan (draw refunded)

60%

Fram Reykjavik (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stjarnan at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

Fram Reykjavik away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stjarnan attack 2.16 + Fram Reykjavik defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.13

Fram Reykjavik attack 1.59 + Stjarnan defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stjarnan scores more

48%

level

21%

Fram Reykjavik scores more

31%

Stjarnan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stjarnan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

E. Atlason

41'

E. Atlason↳ B. Waren

57'

O. Eggertsson← A. Hauksson

57'

B. Gudlaugsson← H. O. Brink

59'

R. Hauksson← M. Aegisson

59'

K. Konradsson← G. Magnusson

71'

A. Elisson← V. Dimitrijevic

72'

O. Orvarsson← D. Matthiasson

72'

A. Birgisson← T. Thorisson

82'

K. Konradsson

82'

H. Asgrimsson← I. Garcia

87'

O. Eggertsson

89'

T. Thorbjornsson

90+1'

A. Elisson

90'

A. Bjarnason← E. Atlason

Stjarnan

Fram

22

19

5

26

3

12

23

▼

Aegisson

16

▼

Garcia

7

▼

Magnusson

10

Saraiva

29

▼

12

5

6

4

▼

Thorisson

24

Jonsson

29

▼

Hauksson

23

A

Waren

37

▼

Brink

19

▼

Matthiass

22

⚽

▼

Atlason

18

Nokkvason

Manager: Þórarinn Ingi Valdimarsson

57'▲O. Eggertsson←▼A. Hauksson

57'▲B. Gudlaugsson←▼H. O. Brink

72'▲O. Orvarsson←▼D. Matthiasson

72'▲A. Birgisson←▼T. Thorisson

90'▲A. Bjarnason←▼E. Atlason

Stjarnan substitutes

7Eggertsson49Heimisson32Orvarsson43Gislason99Bjarnason11Birgisson14Barkarson28Gudlaugsson1Birnuson

Manager: Rúnar Kristinsson

59'▲R. Hauksson←▼M. Aegisson

59'▲K. Konradsson←▼G. Magnusson

71'▲A. Elisson←▼V. Dimitrijevic

82'▲H. Asgrimsson←▼I. Garcia

Fram Reykjavik substitutes

32Andrason9Hauksson71Elisson30Konradsson11Thordarson1Arnaldarson36Kjartansson8Asgrimsson17Arnarson