Fram Reykjavik 1–1 Stjarnan: Result & Stats

Fram Reykjavik

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stjarnan

Fred Saraiva 52'

O. Eggertsson 57'

10/20/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Championship Round - 4Lambhagavöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Fram Reykjavik47%

×Draw23%

Stjarnan31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fram ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchStjarnan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.47

Fram Reykjavik

1.85

Stjarnan

1.47

Fram Reykjavik creates 26% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

2.19

creates per match

1.65

1.29

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Fram Reykjavik

2.19

Stjarnan

1.65

allows per match

Fram Reykjavik

1.29

Stjarnan

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fram Reykjavik+0.00on par

Stjarnan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fram Reykjavik ↓

Stjarnan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Fram Reykjavik or draw

69%

Fram Reykjavik or Stjarnan

77%

Draw or Stjarnan

53%

Winning margin

Fram Reykjavik wins by 2+

25%

Stjarnan wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fram Reykjavik 1+ goals

84%

Fram Reykjavik 2+ goals

55%

Fram Reykjavik 3+ goals

28%

Stjarnan 1+ goals

77%

Stjarnan 2+ goals

43%

Stjarnan 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Fram Reykjavik (draw refunded)

60%

Stjarnan (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fram Reykjavik at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Stjarnan away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fram Reykjavik attack 2.19 + Stjarnan defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.85

Stjarnan attack 1.65 + Fram Reykjavik defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fram Reykjavik scores more

47%

level

23%

Stjarnan scores more

31%

Fram Reykjavik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fram Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

Fred Saraiva↳ H. Asgrimsson

57'

O. Eggertsson↳ A. Conteh

58'

S. Fridjonsson← A. Conteh

58'

E. Atlason← D. Dankerlui

62'

K. Chopart

71'

R. Hauksson← J. Bystrom

73'

B. Waren

75'

A. Hauksson← A. Bjarnason

79'

V. Dimitrijevic← Fred Saraiva

86'

M. Aegisson← H. Asgrimsson

86'

K. Konradsson← F. Sigurdsson

90+4'

G. Kristjansson

Fram

Stjarnan

12

Olafsson

15

▼

5

44

32

23

6

20

A

▼

Conteh

7

⚽

Eggertsso

99

▼

18

22

19

5

26

3

8

A

▼

Asgrimsso

25

▼

Sigurdsso

16

Garcia

12

Tibbling

10

⚽

▼

Saraiva

15

▼

Bystrom

Manager: Rúnar Kristinsson

71'▲R. Hauksson←▼J. Bystrom

79'▲V. Dimitrijevic←▼Fred Saraiva

86'▲M. Aegisson←▼H. Asgrimsson

86'▲K. Konradsson←▼F. Sigurdsson

Fram Reykjavik substitutes

36Kjartansson6Geirsson9Hauksson11Thordarson23Aegisson29Dimitrijevic30Konradsson32Andrason33Pauzuolis

Manager: Þórarinn Ingi Valdimarsson

58'▲S. Fridjonsson←▼A. Conteh

58'▲E. Atlason←▼D. Dankerlui

75'▲A. Hauksson←▼A. Bjarnason

Stjarnan substitutes

1Birnuson8Gunnarsson10Fridjonsson11Birgisson21Turay22Atlason29Hauksson45Heimisson78Hauksson