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Stirling University vs Cumbernauld Colts — League #731 2026

Stirling University
Stirling University
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cumbernauld Colts
Cumbernauld Colts
12/6/2025League #731League #731

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Stirling University21%
×Draw22%
Cumbernauld Colts58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stirling University
1.11
Cumbernauld Colts
1.99

Cumbernauld Colts creates 79% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 3 away

creates per match

Stirling University
1.22
Cumbernauld Colts
2.33

allows per match

Stirling University
1.65
Cumbernauld Colts
1.00

finishing

Stirling University+0.00on par
Cumbernauld Colts+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling University ↓

Cumbernauld Colts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Stirling University or draw
42%
Stirling University or Cumbernauld Colts
78%
Draw or Cumbernauld Colts
79%

Winning margin

Stirling University wins by 2+
8%
Cumbernauld Colts wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Stirling University 1+ goals
67%
Stirling University 2+ goals
30%
Stirling University 3+ goals
10%
Cumbernauld Colts 1+ goals
86%
Cumbernauld Colts 2+ goals
59%
Cumbernauld Colts 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Stirling University (draw refunded)
27%
Cumbernauld Colts (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling University at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

Cumbernauld Colts away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling University attack 1.22 + Cumbernauld Colts defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Cumbernauld Colts attack 2.33 + Stirling University defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Stirling University scores more
21%
level
22%
Cumbernauld Colts scores more
58%

Cumbernauld Colts at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cumbernauld Colts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #731: Stirling University 0–1 Cumbernauld Colts

Cumbernauld Colts beat Stirling University 1-0 in League #731 on December 6, 2025.