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Cumbernauld Colts vs Stirling University — League #731 2026

Cumbernauld Colts
Cumbernauld Colts
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Stirling University
Stirling University
4/18/2026League #731League #731

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cumbernauld Colts54%
×Draw21%
Stirling University24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cumbernauld Colts
2.08
Stirling University
1.33

Cumbernauld Colts creates 56% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 23 away

creates per match

Cumbernauld Colts
1.67
Stirling University
1.00

allows per match

Cumbernauld Colts
1.67
Stirling University
2.48

finishing

Cumbernauld Colts+0.00on par
Stirling University+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumbernauld Colts ↓

Stirling University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Cumbernauld Colts or draw
76%
Cumbernauld Colts or Stirling University
79%
Draw or Stirling University
46%

Winning margin

Cumbernauld Colts wins by 2+
32%
Stirling University wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cumbernauld Colts 1+ goals
87%
Cumbernauld Colts 2+ goals
61%
Cumbernauld Colts 3+ goals
34%
Stirling University 1+ goals
74%
Stirling University 2+ goals
38%
Stirling University 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cumbernauld Colts (draw refunded)
69%
Stirling University (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumbernauld Colts at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Stirling University away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumbernauld Colts attack 1.67 + Stirling University defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.08

Stirling University attack 1.00 + Cumbernauld Colts defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cumbernauld Colts scores more
54%
level
21%
Stirling University scores more
24%

Cumbernauld Colts at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cumbernauld Colts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #731: Cumbernauld Colts 4–1 Stirling University

Cumbernauld Colts beat Stirling University 4-1 in League #731 on April 18, 2026.