Stirling University 2–2 Bo'ness United

Stirling University

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bo'ness United

T. Vonk 57'

F. Moffett 17'

R. Porteous 75', 37'

12/14/2024

League #731 · Lowland League - 21Forthbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Stirling University36%

×Draw26%

Bo'ness United38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stirling UniversityExpected goals in this matchBo'ness United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.32

Stirling University

1.27

Bo'ness United

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 3 away

1.22

creates per match

1.00

1.65

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Stirling University

1.22

Bo'ness United

1.00

allows per match

Stirling University

1.65

Bo'ness United

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stirling University+0.00on par

Bo'ness United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling University ↓

Bo'ness United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Stirling University or draw

62%

Stirling University or Bo'ness United

74%

Draw or Bo'ness United

64%

Winning margin

Stirling University wins by 2+

15%

Bo'ness United wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Stirling University 1+ goals

72%

Stirling University 2+ goals

36%

Stirling University 3+ goals

14%

Bo'ness United 1+ goals

73%

Bo'ness United 2+ goals

38%

Bo'ness United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Stirling University (draw refunded)

48%

Bo'ness United (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling University at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

Bo'ness United away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling University attack 1.22 + Bo'ness United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bo'ness United attack 1.00 + Stirling University defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stirling University scores more

36%

level

26%

Bo'ness United scores more

38%

Bo'ness United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bo'ness United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

37'

57'

75'

Stirling

Bo'ness

Manager: C. Geddes

Manager: S. Hunter