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Bo'ness United vs Stirling University — League #731 2026

Bo'ness United
Bo'ness United
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stirling University
Stirling University
1/24/2026League #731League #731 · Lowland League - 31Newtown Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bo'ness United70%
×Draw17%
Stirling University12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bo'ness United
2.37
Stirling University
0.88

Bo'ness United creates 169% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 23 away

creates per match

Bo'ness United
2.25
Stirling University
1.00

allows per match

Bo'ness United
0.75
Stirling University
2.48

finishing

Bo'ness United+0.00on par
Stirling University+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bo'ness United ↓

Stirling University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bo'ness United or draw
88%
Bo'ness United or Stirling University
83%
Draw or Stirling University
30%

Winning margin

Bo'ness United wins by 2+
47%
Stirling University wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bo'ness United 1+ goals
91%
Bo'ness United 2+ goals
68%
Bo'ness United 3+ goals
42%
Stirling University 1+ goals
59%
Stirling University 2+ goals
22%
Stirling University 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bo'ness United (draw refunded)
85%
Stirling University (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bo'ness United at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Stirling University away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bo'ness United attack 2.25 + Stirling University defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.37

Stirling University attack 1.00 + Bo'ness United defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Bo'ness United scores more
70%
level
17%
Stirling University scores more
12%

Bo'ness United at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Bo'ness United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bo'ness United vs Stirling University

Bo'ness United beat Stirling University 2-0 in League #731 on January 24, 2026.

The match was played at Newtown Park in Bo'ness.