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Stirling Albion vs Raith Rovers — League Cup 2018

Stirling Albion
Stirling Albion
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Raith Rovers
Raith Rovers
7/13/2024League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 1Forthbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stirling Albion31%
×Draw23%
Raith Rovers46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stirling Albion
1.47
Raith Rovers
1.83

Raith Rovers creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Stirling Albion
0.93
Raith Rovers
1.27

allows per match

Stirling Albion
2.40
Raith Rovers
2.00

finishing

Stirling Albion+0.00on par
Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling Albion ↓

Raith Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Stirling Albion or draw
54%
Stirling Albion or Raith Rovers
77%
Draw or Raith Rovers
69%

Winning margin

Stirling Albion wins by 2+
14%
Raith Rovers wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Stirling Albion 1+ goals
77%
Stirling Albion 2+ goals
43%
Stirling Albion 3+ goals
18%
Raith Rovers 1+ goals
84%
Raith Rovers 2+ goals
54%
Raith Rovers 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)
40%
Raith Rovers (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling Albion at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Raith Rovers away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling Albion attack 0.93 + Raith Rovers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.47

Raith Rovers attack 1.27 + Stirling Albion defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stirling Albion scores more
31%
level
23%
Raith Rovers scores more
46%

Raith Rovers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stirling Albion vs Raith Rovers

Raith Rovers beat Stirling Albion 3-0 in League Cup on July 13, 2024.

The match was played at Forthbank Stadium in Stirling.